Why is the content of this map important?
The Weather-Value at Risk (Weather-VaR 95%) is used as a measure of the risk of loss on a specific economic sector. Here, Weather-VaR (95%) represents the climate change-induced loss to overnight stays of the extended summer tourism season (May to October), which will not be exceeded with a probability of 95%.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
The results indicate the Weather-VaR (95%) for May to October in which the majority of summer tourism activities take place in Europe, affecting the tourism sector. The respective results for June to August that make up the core summer tourism season for Europe should also be considered.
What is shown on the maps?
The Weather-VaR (95%) in the May to October summer tourism period is expected to mainly decrease or not change significantly for the vast majority of European countries. Exceptions are Portugal, Greece and Cyprus where increase in Value at Risk is expected. The increase in the particular countries Weather- VaR (95%) was estimated for both global warming levels of 2°C and 3°C, with the latter to be more pronounced.
Details and further information:
Weather-VaR (95%) represents the weather-induced loss, which will not be exceeded with a probability of 95% within the considered time horizon. For example, a Weather-VaR (95%) value of 2% tells us that we are 95% certain that the weather-related loss to overnight stays will not exceed 2%.
To investigate this, the ensemble of the five mandatory climate simulations is used as input to calculate the weather value at risk of losing overnight stays under a +2°C global warming. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.
For the +3°C global warming case the analysis is based on the standard set of four climate simulations.
Manolis Grillakis
Technical University of Crete (TUC), Greece