Why is the content of this map important?
The consequences of a +2 to +3°C global warming are important in this region, in particular in semi-arid areas, because temperature controls evaporation, and therefore soil moisture. As the expected increase in precipitation is not large there, there is a risk of water shortage.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
This result affects mainly the agriculture sector.
What is shown on the maps?
The maps show that the warming is above 2°C in the continental part of the domain, for the +2°C global scenario. There is little uncertainty about this result: the probability to get more than +3°C or less than 1°C is weak. In the +3°C global scenario, the extreme North (Sahara desert) warms up more than +4°C, whereas the temperature in the regions close to the ocean increase by less than 3°C.
Details and further information:
The table below shows the monthly temperature (°C) cycle in both climates, averaged over the domain (ocean excluded).
| month | J | F | M | A | M | J | J | A | S | O | N | D |
| 1971-2000 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 22 | 20 |
| +2°C | 21 | 23 | 26 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 24 | 21 |
The climate change indicators have been calculated from the CNRM/CNRM-ARPEGE52,CNRM/ENEA-REGCM, ECEARTH/CSC-REMO, ECEARTH/SMHI-RCA4, ECEARTH/DMI-HIRHAM, MPI-ES/CSC-REMO simulations.
Michel Déqué
Meteo France (MeteoF), France