Why is the content of this map important?
Maize represents just under 22% of total cereals production in the EU and is the 2nd largest cereal crop, by total production. This map combines estimated changes in maize production with an estimate of the agricultural sector to cope with predicted changing drought conditions, and highlights areas that may be more vulnerable than others.
Which sectors are affected by this result?
Vulnerability of specific crops is most relevant for the agricultural sector, although crop production and extreme events lowering that output can have an impact on consumer prices at regional and world markets.
What is shown on the maps?
These results are a combination of estimates of the difference between current and future maize yields and the adaptive capacity (AC) of the agricultural sector to cope with increasing drought hazards, producing an index of vulnerability. The vulnerability index was limited to grid cells in which over 5% are currently used for crop production. Lower scores mean little to no future vulnerability, with moderate scores indicating increasing impacts with which farmers can cope. High values indicate possible areas which will be unable to cope with these future changes.
Based on this approach, the most vulnerable areas occur in eastern Europe, namely Hungary, as well as small areas in western France and northern Italy.
Details and further information:
This estimate of vulnerability is the combination of biophysical impacts with adaptive capacity. Areas with low impacts and high adaptive capacity receive lower vulnerability scores, increasing as impacts increase and/or AC decreases. AC is estimated via a four capitals indicator approach, which uses three indicators of physical, social, financial, natural, and human capitals. These indicators are then aggregated to form a single AC index, as can be seen in the Atlas map on assessing agricultural AC.
To identify vulnerability, adaptive capacity projected for different regions was combined with potential impacts estimated by the EPIC model. EPIC was driven by the five mandatory climate simulations. Hence, the ensemble consists of 5 simulations in total.
Keith WilligesInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)